The Delaware Project

This one is going to be big.

UMass coach Don Brown (Courtesy/CAASports.com)

Tomorrow’s football game may be the great separator of the 2008 season. Both UMass and Delaware are 2-2, with losses to a FCS and FBS opponent. Both teams are historically powerhouses within the conference (be it Atlantic 10 or Colonial Athletic). Both teams need a win to keep playoff dreams alive.

If UMass wants to pull this one out it will have to rely on its unexpected Achilles heel – defense.

The Blue Hens are putting up a very respectable 28.5 points per game this season, and its defense has been getting the job done, letting up a mere 16. Equally impressive is the fact that Delaware’s defense let up seven points to Albany and only 14 to the ACC’s Maryland. UMass gave up 16 to the Great Danes.

The Minutemen haven’t been able to stop anyone – especially on the ground.

Delaware is going to test UMass’ run defense and has three backs that have more than 20 carries this season. The loss of senior captain Kervin Michaud may sting a little, but as long as Jonathan Smith is in the backfield the Blue Hens are going to be dangerous. Smith already has eight touchdowns this season.

UMass is going to need a big game from running back Tony Nelson, who has an impressive 411 yards in just four games. Delaware’s defense is efficient against the run and is allowing less that four yards per carry. Nelson needs to break a few to let Liam Coen work his usual magic from the quarterback position.

Apparently Korrey Davis will be getting some touches as well.

On offense, true freshman Korrey Davis is expected to get more playing time as Tony Nelson’s back-up. Senior Brandon White has been second on the depth chart all season but has only carried the ball three times, all in the opener against Albany. Davis carried 15 times for 51 yards and touchdown against Texas Tech.

One of the keys to victory will be to put pressure on Delaware quarterback Robby Schoenhoft, who has not exactly filled with shoes of Joe Flacco. Schoenhoft has four touchdowns to go along with seven interceptions this year. Four of the seven came against Furman, but he has had a steady diet of a pick a game in the other three contests.

Coach Keeler may be taking some of the onus off his signal caller, as Schoenhoft threw a season-low 16 passes in Delaware’s victory over Albany last weekend.

This looks to be a very, very close matchup, and if UMass can pull its defense together after the much-needed bye week, I think the Minutemen will come out on top. If not, look for another loss with a big number next to the opponent’s name on the scoreboard.

My prediction:

• UMass: 28
• Delaware: 24